231 Saint Arlene Way

Robinson Mill, CA 95966

$149,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 871,200 sqft · Built — · Other · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,321/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $106/mo
• Annual: $1,273/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 35/100 on livability (#1,438 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ophir Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 447 students, 58% FRL); Ishi Hills Middle (302 students, 65% FRL); Las Plumas High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,287 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 376 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $100k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.