231 Saint Arlene Way · Robinson Mill, CA 95966

$149,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 871,200 sqft · Other · 143 Days on market

20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Surrounded by beautiful lakes and mountains. This an opportunity to re build or start a new construction. Buyer to verify permits for the home and all the diligence of it. Septic is working. Installed the well 3 years ago.

Key facts

• Working septic
• Installed well
• 20 acre lot

Tags

• WORKING SEPTIC
• INSTALLED WELL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric: Other; No public utilities listed
• Home design: Single family residence (ranchette/country)
• Construction:
• Exterior features: Allows horses; Other lot features; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Living room with additional features; Dining room with additional features; One story
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 35/100 on livability (#1,438 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ophir Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 447 students, 58% FRL); Ishi Hills Middle (302 students, 65% FRL); Las Plumas High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,287 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 376 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-17,426
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,626
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,129/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,187

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $148	+0% $106	+5% $64	+10% $22
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $54	+0% $106	+5% $158	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $144	base $106	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 121 DOM
18. 2022-08-11
    soldstatus $100,000
19. 2022-05-09
    soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,129 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$4/yr ($0/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,129
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,239
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$297
• After-tax cash flow: $1,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Robinson Mill

• Score: 35/100
• State rank: #1438
• US rank: #27737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+49.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2022-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,129 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.