76 Tarn Trl

Holland, NY 14069

$199,900A-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,141 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$710
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $1,159/mo
• Annual: $13,903/yr
• Cap rate: 13.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.84%
• DSCR: 2.11
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,016 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Springville-Griffith Institute Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #385 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $148k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 1.7% in Holland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.