4201 Topanga Canyon Blvd #171

Topanga, CA 91364

$424,999C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,358 sqft · Built 1963 · Manufactured · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,786/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,005
• Net cashflow: $844/mo
• Annual: $10,129/yr
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.51%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $425k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $412k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#846 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Las Virgenes Unified (suburban): math 55% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #58 of 517 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $425k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.6% in Topanga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.