538 N Austin St

Paris, IL 61944

$14,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $852/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78
• Tax + insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $580/mo
• Annual: $6,961/yr
• Cap rate: 53.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 166.86%
• DSCR: 8.42
• 1% rule: 5.72%
• Cash to close: $4,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $14k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $103 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $447 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#342 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris-Union SD 95 (town): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #227 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Elementary School (286 students, 0% FRL); Mayo Middle School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #116 of 665 statewide, top 19%, 250 students, 0% FRL); Paris Cooperative High School 95 (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #473 of 693 statewide, top 69%, 367 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Edgar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Edgar County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 53.0% vs local median 8.3% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.