538 N Austin St · Paris, IL 61944

$14,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 1956 3,484 sqft lot $17/sqft · 68% below area ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in Paris! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a desirable corner lot surrounded by mature trees, offering shade and a charming setting. With solid potential and a functional layout, this property is ready for your personal touch and updates. Whether you're looking for an investment opportunity or a place to make your own, this home provides a great starting point at an affordable value. Don't miss the chance to bring new life to this property in a convenient location! Sold as is.

Key facts

• 3,484 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 53.0% vs local median 8.3% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#342 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris-Union SD 95 (town): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #227 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Edgar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $103 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $447 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Edgar County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $14,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 53.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 166.86%
• DSCR: 8.42
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,472
• List price: $14,900
• Delta: -67.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
611 N Central Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0	892 (-0%)	9mo	$12,000	$13	68
308 W Edgar St	0.37mi	2/1.0	951 (+6%)	6mo	$95,000	$100	68
502 N Jefferson St	0.18mi	2/1.0	952 (+6%)	17mo	$70,000	$74	67
607 West End Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	800 (-11%)	19mo	$76,320	$95	61
414 Sutherland Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	828 (-8%)	18mo	$75,260	$91	60
213 N Austin St	0.28mi	2/1.0	984 (+10%)	13mo	$38,000	$39	60
320 Parrish St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	974 (+9%)	13mo	$45,000	$46	52
722 Connelly St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	928 (+4%)	7mo	$141,700	$153	50
824 W Madison St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+3%)	13mo	$81,000	$88	48
714 Liberty St	0.35mi	2/1.0	992 (+11%)	24mo	$16,500	$17	46
207 W Blackburn St	0.56mi	2/1.0	974 (+9%)	22mo	$103,180	$106	41
715 W Elizabeth St	0.73mi	2/1.0	832 (-7%)	24mo	$50,392	$61	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.28×
• Total profit: $34,540
• Equity at exit: $2,222

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.62×
• Total profit: $77,681
• Equity at exit: $1,288

Cash invested: $4,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61944

• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$78
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $108/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $118

Max offer price $14,900

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $589	-5% $584	+0% $580	+5% $576	+10% $572
Rent	-10% $513	-5% $546	+0% $580	+5% $614	+10% $647
Rate	-1.0pp $588	-0.5pp $584	base $580	+0.5pp $576	+1.0pp $572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,725
• Closing costs: $447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $14,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $14,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $14,900 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $14,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $14,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $14,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $14,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,900 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $14,900 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $14,900 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $14,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $14,900 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $14,900 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $14,900 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $14,900 Active 69 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $14,900 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-04-22
    price $14,900 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Great opportunity in Paris! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a desirable corner lot surrounded by mature trees, offering shade and a charming setting. With solid potential and a functional layout, this property is ready for your personal touch and updates. Whether you're looking for an investment opportunity or a place to make your own, this home provides a great starting point at an affordable value. Don't miss the chance to bring new life to this property in a convenient location!

19. 2026-04-22
    price $14,900 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Great opportunity in Paris! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a desirable corner lot surrounded by mature trees, offering shade and a charming setting. With solid potential and a functional layout, this property is ready for your personal touch and updates. Whether you're looking for an investment opportunity or a place to make your own, this home provides a great starting point at an affordable value. Don't miss the chance to bring new life to this property in a convenient location!

20. 2026-04-09
    price $18,000
21. 2026-03-24
    listed $17,000 Active 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    Great opportunity in Paris! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a desirable corner lot surrounded by mature trees, offering shade and a charming setting. With solid potential and a functional layout, this property is ready for your personal touch and updates. Whether you're looking for an investment opportunity or a place to make your own, this home provides a great starting point at an affordable value. Don't miss the chance to bring new life to this property in a convenient location! Sold as is.

22. 2026-03-23
    listed $17,000 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Great opportunity in Paris! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a desirable corner lot surrounded by mature trees, offering shade and a charming setting. With solid potential and a functional layout, this property is ready for your personal touch and updates. Whether you're looking for an investment opportunity or a place to make your own, this home provides a great starting point at an affordable value. Don't miss the chance to bring new life to this property in a convenient location!

23. 2026-03-03
    listed $24,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $108 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $223 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 106.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$835
• − Property taxes: −$108
• − Insurance: −$74
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$818
• − Management: −$818
• − Depreciation: −$433
• Taxable income: $7,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,714
• After-tax cash flow: $5,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris-Union SD 95
• NCES district ID: 1730750
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,294
• Composite: 27.73/100
• National rank: #6901
• State rank: #227 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paris

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #6933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, IL
• City population: 11,426
• Population (ZIP): 11,426

Population outlook (Edgar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,960 people
• By 2030: 14,978 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,990 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 11,087 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 7,338 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 4,526 · -71.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Edgar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.0% · R 75.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.48%
• Current HPI: 108.1718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-37.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $14,900 CIBR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $14,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $18,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $17,000 CIBR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $17,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $24,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $108 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.