Hailey C Plan

Saratoga Springs, UT 84045

$578,900D

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,493 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,940/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
• Tax + insurance: −$965
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$827
• Net cashflow: $-888/mo
• Annual: $-10,653/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.57%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $162,092

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $579k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-888 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $450k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $394k (31.9% below list).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $394k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#93 in UT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Alpine District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in UT (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1175 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,326 units permitted in Utah County in 2024 (1,053 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Utah County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($130k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.