5469 Lake Granbury Trl

Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$164,900C-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,776/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$352
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $183/mo
• Annual: $2,195/yr
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.01%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.