10038 Holtzel

Greeley Hill, CA 95311

$215,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 225 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,365/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-407/mo
• Annual: $-4,890/yr
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.12%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (36.5% below list).
• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,392 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 19445% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.