10038 Holtzel · Greeley Hill, CA 95311

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 225 Days on market

Built 2006 2.53 ac lot $158/sqft · 20% below area Est $421k · 49% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sellers are very motivated! Want a quiet location? This is the place to be! This property offers two homes! The main house features a two-bedroom and two-bathroom (1320). There's a two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured(770) home currently vacant. The gate close to the main house gives you access to Stanislaus National Forest. If you're looking for a beautiful country location with an ADU unit for extra income or parents. In that case, this is the house for you. The area is secluded, so this could be your little mini ranch chickens for fresh eggs, goats, and more. There is a fenced yard for pets, and the ADU property is partially fenced. The property boasts a pond with a beautiful waterfall from which to relax.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Pond with waterfall
• 2.53 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• POND WITH WATERFALL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,392 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 19445% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,497 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.12%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $420,947
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -48.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,082
• Equity at exit: $81,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,721
• Equity at exit: $115,372

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95311

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $156,035

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 207 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 206 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 205 DOM
18. 2026-04-25
    price $220,000 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Sellers are very motivated! Want a quiet location? This is the place to be! This property offers two homes! The main house features a two-bedroom and two-bathroom (1320). There's a two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured(770) home currently vacant. The gate close to the main house gives you access to Stanislaus National Forest. If you're looking for a beautiful country location with an ADU unit for extra income or parents. In that case, this is the house for you. The area is secluded, so this could be your little mini ranch chickens for fresh eggs, goats, and more. There is a fenced yard for pets, and the ADU property is partially fenced. The property boasts a pond with a beautiful waterfall from which to relax.

19. 2026-04-19
    status Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Sellers are very motivated! Want a quiet location? This is the place to be! This property offers two homes! The main house features a two-bedroom and two-bathroom (1320). There's a two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured(770) home currently vacant. The gate close to the main house gives you access to Stanislaus National Forest. If you're looking for a beautiful country location with an ADU unit for extra income or parents. In that case, this is the house for you. The area is secluded, so this could be your little mini ranch chickens for fresh eggs, goats, and more. There is a fenced yard for pets, and the ADU property is partially fenced. The property boasts a pond with a beautiful waterfall from which to relax.

20. 2026-04-17
    status Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Sellers are very motivated! Want a quiet location? This is the place to be! This property offers two homes! The main house features a two-bedroom and two-bathroom (1320). There's a two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured(770) home currently vacant. The gate close to the main house gives you access to Stanislaus National Forest. If you're looking for a beautiful country location with an ADU unit for extra income or parents. In that case, this is the house for you. The area is secluded, so this could be your little mini ranch chickens for fresh eggs, goats, and more. There is a fenced yard for pets, and the ADU property is partially fenced. The property boasts a pond with a beautiful waterfall from which to relax.

21. 2026-02-01
    status Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Sellers are very motivated! Want a quiet location? This is the place to be! This property offers two homes! The main house features a two-bedroom and two-bathroom (1320). There's a two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured(770) home currently vacant. The gate close to the main house gives you access to Stanislaus National Forest. If you're looking for a beautiful country location with an ADU unit for extra income or parents. In that case, this is the house for you. The area is secluded, so this could be your little mini ranch chickens for fresh eggs, goats, and more. There is a fenced yard for pets, and the ADU property is partially fenced. The property boasts a pond with a beautiful waterfall from which to relax.

22. 2026-01-17
    historical Active Under Contract 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Sellers are very motivated! Want a quiet location? This is the place to be! This property offers two homes! The main house features a two-bedroom and two-bathroom (1320). There's a two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured(770) home currently vacant. The gate close to the main house gives you access to Stanislaus National Forest. If you're looking for a beautiful country location with an ADU unit for extra income or parents. In that case, this is the house for you. The area is secluded, so this could be your little mini ranch chickens for fresh eggs, goats, and more. There is a fenced yard for pets, and the ADU property is partially fenced. The property boasts a pond with a beautiful waterfall from which to relax.

23. 2025-12-01
    status Pending Sale 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Sellers are very motivated! Want a quiet location? This is the place to be! This property offers two homes! The main house features a two-bedroom and two-bathroom (1320). There's a two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured(770) home currently vacant. The gate close to the main house gives you access to Stanislaus National Forest. If you're looking for a beautiful country location with an ADU unit for extra income or parents. In that case, this is the house for you. The area is secluded, so this could be your little mini ranch chickens for fresh eggs, goats, and more. There is a fenced yard for pets, and the ADU property is partially fenced. The property boasts a pond with a beautiful waterfall from which to relax.

24. 2025-10-21
    historical $1,100
25. 2025-09-19
    listed $1,100
26. 2025-09-18
    listed $275,000 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Sellers are very motivated! Want a quiet location? This is the place to be! This property offers two homes! The main house features a two-bedroom and two-bathroom (1320). There's a two-bedroom, one-bath manufactured(770) home currently vacant. The gate close to the main house gives you access to Stanislaus National Forest. If you're looking for a beautiful country location with an ADU unit for extra income or parents. In that case, this is the house for you. The area is secluded, so this could be your little mini ranch chickens for fresh eggs, goats, and more. There is a fenced yard for pets, and the ADU property is partially fenced. The property boasts a pond with a beautiful waterfall from which to relax.

27. 2025-09-17
    historical
28. 2025-06-25
    price $275,000
29. 2025-06-25
    price $275,000
30. 2025-04-28
    price $280,000
31. 2025-04-28
    price $280,000
32. 2025-02-17
    price $299,500
33. 2025-02-17
    price $299,500
34. 2024-12-30
    price $325,000
35. 2024-12-30
    price $325,000
36. 2024-10-03
    price $345,000
37. 2024-10-03
    price $345,000
38. 2024-09-23
    listed $385,000 Active
39. 2024-06-10
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥97°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$8,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,121
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Greeley Hill

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #1392
• US rank: #27320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greeley Hill, CA
• City population: 2,282
• Population (ZIP): 2,282

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Lithuanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.73%
• Current HPI: 151.1386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-42.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-17 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Rental Removed $1,100 Avail
• 2025-09-19 Listed for Rent $1,100 Avail
• 2025-09-18 Listed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $275,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $280,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $280,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $299,500 CRMLS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $299,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $325,000 CRMLS
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $325,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $345,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $345,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2024-09-23 Listed $385,000 CRMLS
• 2024-06-10 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2021): $80 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.