1040 Umber Dr Lot : 204

Garfield, MI 49696

$279,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Built 2021 · Townhouse · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$80
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-399/mo
• Annual: $-4,785/yr
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-399 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (26.9% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Traverse City Area Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #94 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cherry Knoll Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #547 of 1,397 statewide, top 41%, 357 students, 40% FRL); East Middle School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 786 students, 38% FRL); Central High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #58 of 713 statewide, top 9%, 1,387 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 883 units permitted in Grand Traverse County in 2024 (501 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grand Traverse County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.6% in Garfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.