1040 Umber Dr Lot : 204 · Garfield, MI 49696

$279,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Townhouse · 164 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $329/sqft · 9% below area Est $307k · 9% under $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Umber Uplift Practically new. Perfectly placed. Completely turn-key. Just 5.7 miles from downtown Traverse City, this corner-lot ranch in Traditions delivers country calm with easy access to town. Sunrise glows on the covered front porch, perfect for morning coffee. The back deck is — perfect for lounging, container gardens, and summer tomatoes. The dog park is steps from your front door, and mature trees frame the neighborhood with Northern Michigan charm. Inside, vaulted ceilings and oversized windows create bright, airy living. Luxury vinyl flooring flows throughout. The island kitchen shines with granite counters, soft-close white cabinetry, and stainless appliances — including a gas range with convection oven. It’s stylish, efficient, and ready for gathering. The primary bedroom comfortably fits a king-sized bed. The second bedroom flexes beautifully as guest space, office, reading room, or creative studio. A dedicated laundry room with Maytag washer and dryer, and plenty of space for the necessities. Storage is generous with a four-foot insulated poured concrete crawl space. Two designated parking spots sit directly in front of the home. Paved neighborhood roads are ideal for biking, and Logan’s Landing at Boardman Lake is just 3.8 miles away — bring your kayak, paddleboard, or bike and lean into the lifestyle. For $80/month, the association handles lawn care, sprinklers, snow removal, and trash — creating true low-maintenance living. With larger homes in the neighborhood priced significantly higher, this is a smart, versatile opportunity — ideal for a starter home, downsizing dream, Northern Michigan getaway, or 30-day minimum rental investment. Effortless. Elevated. Ready to CELEBRATE your next chapter.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Corner-lot ranch
• Back deck

Tags

• CORNER-LOT RANCH
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• MATURE TREES
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-399 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.6% in Garfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Traverse City Area Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #94 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cherry Knoll Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #547 of 1,397 statewide, top 41%, 357 students, 40% FRL); East Middle School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 786 students, 38% FRL); Central High School (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #58 of 713 statewide, top 9%, 1,387 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 883 units permitted in Grand Traverse County in 2024 (501 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand Traverse County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,500 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.11%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,261
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -8.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1066 Weathervane Pl	0.07mi	2/1.0	864 (+2%)	0mo	$264,000	$306	94
1122 Basil Pl	0.03mi	2/1.0	850 (0%)	9mo	$278,000	$327	91
1044 Umber Dr	0.01mi	2/1.0	850 (0%)	32mo	$229,900	$270	80
1071 Cupola Pl #193	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	850 (0%)	27mo	$322,500	$379	68
1058 Weathervane Pl	0.06mi	2/1.0	712 (-16%)	13mo	$225,000	$316	61
1679 Keystone Hills Ct Lot : 10	1.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+9%)	5mo	$150,000	$162	37
1679 Keystone Hills Ct	1.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+9%)	5mo	$150,000	$162	37
1532 Keystone Hills Dr	1.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+15%)	10mo	$95,000	$97	27
1671 Keystone Hills Ct	1.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+15%)	31mo	$64,900	$66	15
1671 Keystone Hls	1.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+15%)	31mo	$64,900	$66	15
1610 Keystone Hills Dr	1.04mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+15%)	33mo	$90,000	$92	15
1653 Keystone Hills Ct	1.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+15%)	31mo	$90,000	$92	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-70,674
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-93,921
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $279,900 ($329/sqft)
• Median days on market: 164 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +9.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 49696

• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,550

Max offer price $222,196

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-205	-5% $-302	+0% $-399	+5% $-495	+10% $-592
Rent	-10% $-560	-5% $-480	+0% $-399	+5% $-318	+10% $-237
Rate	-1.0pp $-258	-0.5pp $-328	base $-399	+0.5pp $-471	+1.0pp $-545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Bay Front Dr Traverse City, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1717	$2,045	$1.19	93d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail $80/mo · $960/yr

• Likely covers: trashgaslandscapingsnow removal

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $279,900 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $279,900 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $279,900 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $279,900 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $279,900 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $279,900 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $279,900 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $279,900 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $279,900 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $279,900 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $279,900 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $279,900 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $279,900 Active 140 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $279,900 Active 139 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $279,900 Active 138 DOM
19. 2026-07-12
    days on market $279,900 Active 137 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $279,900 Active 136 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $279,900 Active 135 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $279,900 Active 134 DOM
23. 2026-07-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 133 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 132 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $279,900 Active 131 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $279,900 Active 130 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $279,900 Active 129 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 128 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 127 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 126 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 125 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $279,900 Active 124 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $279,900 Active 123 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $279,900 Active 122 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $279,900 Active 120 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $279,900 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $279,900 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-06-19
    days on market $279,900 Active 114 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $279,900 Active 113 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $279,900 Active 112 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $279,900 Active 111 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $279,900 Active 110 DOM
43. 2026-06-14
    days on market $279,900 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-06-12
    days on market $279,900 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,900 Active 104 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 103 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 102 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 98 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 97 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 96 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$9,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,344
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,250–$12,750 screening

This nearly new, turn-key condo is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a great balance of curb appeal and interior updates, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Reorganizing and decluttering interior spaces — Creates a more inviting and functional living space, improving both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve natural light and aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Reorganizing and decluttering kitchen and bathroom — A clean and organized space can improve functionality and aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cherry Knoll Elementary School F MI #547/1,397 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle East Middle School C MI #117/493 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Central High School B- MI #58/713 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Traverse City Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633870
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,645
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #2990
• State rank: #94 of 540 in MI

Livability — Garfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Grand Traverse · 102,241 people
• Metro: Traverse City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 10,570
• Household income: $96,138
• Rent vs Own: 7.8% rent · 92.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 27% of renters

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Population outlook (Grand Traverse County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,241 people
• By 2030: 107,172 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 115,676 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 122,377 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 136,554 · +33.6%
• By 2100: 137,871 · +34.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Grand Traverse

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.3% · R 50.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: R+3.0 2016: R+12.5 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.83%
• Current HPI: 363.2087
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $279,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $294,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $299,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS