223 Navidad River Dr

San Marcos, TX 78666

$224,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,707 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,030/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-198/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $62,997

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-198/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (9.8% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.