223 Navidad River Dr · San Marcos, TX 78666

$224,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,707 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2026 5,227 sqft lot Est $218k · at est. $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Oxford - This single-level home features a modern layout perfect for a variety of lifestyles. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the entry, leading to an open-concept floorplan combining the kitchen with the living and dining areas. The luxurious owner’s suite is tucked into a private back corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and roomy walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-198/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,955 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,496
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 Navidad River Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,707 (0%)	1mo	$224,990	$132	99
214 Trinity River Holw	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,707 (0%)	1mo	$223,990	$131	95
212 Navidad River Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,802 (+6%)	1mo	$198,999	$110	86
232 Navidad River Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,802 (+6%)	2mo	$215,990	$120	85
219 Navidad River Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+8%)	1mo	$226,990	$123	85
208 Trinity River Holw	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+8%)	1mo	$235,990	$128	81
235 Navidad River Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+11%)	1mo	$232,990	$123	79
116 Stumpy St	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+8%)	1mo	$264,990	$144	78
204 Navidad River Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-12%)	1mo	$211,999	$141	77
308 Navidad River Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-12%)	2mo	$199,990	$133	75
224 Trinity River Holw	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+11%)	1mo	$229,990	$122	75
136 Trinity River Holw	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+11%)	1mo	$239,999	$127	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,501
• Equity at exit: $33,547

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,754
• Equity at exit: $19,453

Cash invested: $62,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $222,601

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,248
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,195	$1.02	1d	1	0.01mi
308 Navidad River Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	23d	1	0.07mi
426 Spring River Dr Martindale, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,250	$1.78	23d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   price $224,990
3. 2026-02-09
   price $226,990
4. 2026-02-06
   price $228,990
5. 2026-02-01
   listed $235,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,948
• − Management: −$1,948
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$953
• After-tax cash flow: $755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $224,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $226,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $228,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $235,990 Unlock MLS