4020 N Fayston Rd

Waitsfield, VT 05660

$485,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built 1813 · SingleFamily · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-1,298/mo
• Annual: $-15,580/yr
• Cap rate: 3.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.47%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (47.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (57.3% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#37 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1813 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $485k implies a 870% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.1% in Waitsfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1813 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.