4020 N Fayston Rd · Waitsfield, VT 05660

$485,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1813 0.50 ac lot $202/sqft · 29% below area Est $684k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated along the quiet, well-maintained N. Fayston Road, this 2,400 sq ft home blends historic character with thoughtful modern updates. Natural light pours in through brand-new windows, an open first-floor layout invites easy living, and a soapstone wood stove adds warmth on the chillier Vermont days. Upstairs, the space is yours to configure, three bedrooms, a home office, a private retreat, whatever fits your life. The flat, half-acre yard is made for enjoying with mature trees, garden space, and plenty of places to settle in, whether that's a hammock in the shade or a quiet corner to watch the day go by. Picture your mornings here: coffee, mountain views, fresh air. Recent updates give you peace of mind: Rinnai heaters (2 years old), new flooring, added structural supports, and a French drain system. The property runs on private utilities, with an artesian well that's never run dry, and has high-speed internet making working from home easy. Outdoor adventure is practically at your doorstep, 20 minutes to Sugarbush, and minutes to both the Long Trail and the VAST network. Located in the Harwood Union School District, with the school bus stop right out front. It's a quick drive to Waitsfield, Route 100, and all the amenities of the Mad River Valley. History, views, and room to make it your own. Welcome to Fayston.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1813
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (47.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (57.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.1% in Waitsfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#37 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $485k implies a 870% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1813 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $207,071 (57.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1813 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.47%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 19.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $683,519
• List price: $485,000
• Delta: -29.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $181,226
• Equity at exit: $436,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $598,262
• Equity at exit: $942,248

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05660

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 19.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,265/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-1,298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,714

Max offer price $255,642

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $485,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $485,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $485,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $485,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $485,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $499,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $499,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $499,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $525,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $525,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $525,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $525,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $535,000 1339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1339 chars)

    Situated along the quiet, well-maintained N. Fayston Road, this 2,400 sq ft home blends historic character with thoughtful modern updates. Natural light pours in through brand-new windows, an open first-floor layout invites easy living, and a soapstone wood stove adds warmth on the chillier Vermont days. Upstairs, the space is yours to configure, three bedrooms, a home office, a private retreat, whatever fits your life. The flat, half-acre yard is made for enjoying with mature trees, garden space, and plenty of places to settle in, whether that's a hammock in the shade or a quiet corner to watch the day go by. Picture your mornings here: coffee, mountain views, fresh air. Recent updates give you peace of mind: Rinnai heaters (2 years old), new flooring, added structural supports, and a French drain system. The property runs on private utilities, with an artesian well that's never run dry, and has high-speed internet making working from home easy. Outdoor adventure is practically at your doorstep, 20 minutes to Sugarbush, and minutes to both the Long Trail and the VAST network. Located in the Harwood Union School District, with the school bus stop right out front. It's a quick drive to Waitsfield, Route 100, and all the amenities of the Mad River Valley. History, views, and room to make it your own. Welcome to Fayston.

19. 2026-05-12
    price $550,000 1339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1339 chars)

    Situated along the quiet, well-maintained N. Fayston Road, this 2,400 sq ft home blends historic character with thoughtful modern updates. Natural light pours in through brand-new windows, an open first-floor layout invites easy living, and a soapstone wood stove adds warmth on the chillier Vermont days. Upstairs, the space is yours to configure, three bedrooms, a home office, a private retreat, whatever fits your life. The flat, half-acre yard is made for enjoying with mature trees, garden space, and plenty of places to settle in, whether that's a hammock in the shade or a quiet corner to watch the day go by. Picture your mornings here: coffee, mountain views, fresh air. Recent updates give you peace of mind: Rinnai heaters (2 years old), new flooring, added structural supports, and a French drain system. The property runs on private utilities, with an artesian well that's never run dry, and has high-speed internet making working from home easy. Outdoor adventure is practically at your doorstep, 20 minutes to Sugarbush, and minutes to both the Long Trail and the VAST network. Located in the Harwood Union School District, with the school bus stop right out front. It's a quick drive to Waitsfield, Route 100, and all the amenities of the Mad River Valley. History, views, and room to make it your own. Welcome to Fayston.

20. 2026-04-17
    price $585,000 1339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1339 chars)

    Situated along the quiet, well-maintained N. Fayston Road, this 2,400 sq ft home blends historic character with thoughtful modern updates. Natural light pours in through brand-new windows, an open first-floor layout invites easy living, and a soapstone wood stove adds warmth on the chillier Vermont days. Upstairs, the space is yours to configure, three bedrooms, a home office, a private retreat, whatever fits your life. The flat, half-acre yard is made for enjoying with mature trees, garden space, and plenty of places to settle in, whether that's a hammock in the shade or a quiet corner to watch the day go by. Picture your mornings here: coffee, mountain views, fresh air. Recent updates give you peace of mind: Rinnai heaters (2 years old), new flooring, added structural supports, and a French drain system. The property runs on private utilities, with an artesian well that's never run dry, and has high-speed internet making working from home easy. Outdoor adventure is practically at your doorstep, 20 minutes to Sugarbush, and minutes to both the Long Trail and the VAST network. Located in the Harwood Union School District, with the school bus stop right out front. It's a quick drive to Waitsfield, Route 100, and all the amenities of the Mad River Valley. History, views, and room to make it your own. Welcome to Fayston.

21. 2026-03-26
    listed $600,000 Active 1339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1339 chars)

    Situated along the quiet, well-maintained N. Fayston Road, this 2,400 sq ft home blends historic character with thoughtful modern updates. Natural light pours in through brand-new windows, an open first-floor layout invites easy living, and a soapstone wood stove adds warmth on the chillier Vermont days. Upstairs, the space is yours to configure, three bedrooms, a home office, a private retreat, whatever fits your life. The flat, half-acre yard is made for enjoying with mature trees, garden space, and plenty of places to settle in, whether that's a hammock in the shade or a quiet corner to watch the day go by. Picture your mornings here: coffee, mountain views, fresh air. Recent updates give you peace of mind: Rinnai heaters (2 years old), new flooring, added structural supports, and a French drain system. The property runs on private utilities, with an artesian well that's never run dry, and has high-speed internet making working from home easy. Outdoor adventure is practically at your doorstep, 20 minutes to Sugarbush, and minutes to both the Long Trail and the VAST network. Located in the Harwood Union School District, with the school bus stop right out front. It's a quick drive to Waitsfield, Route 100, and all the amenities of the Mad River Valley. History, views, and room to make it your own. Welcome to Fayston.

22. 2004-09-13
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,265 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,740 · $478/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,475/yr (+$290/mo · 153.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥87°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$2,265
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable loss: −$25,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,022
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Waitsfield

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #9382

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,900

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Lithuanian 9% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.68%
• Current HPI: 394.5897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+970.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $535,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $550,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $585,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $600,000 PrimeMLS
• 2004-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,265 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.