Package Property 3

Lubbock, TX 79415

$446,000C

15 bd · 7.5 ba · 5,443 sqft · Built 2012 · MultiFamily · Active · 468 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,036/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,339
• Tax + insurance: −$743
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,058
• Net cashflow: $896/mo
• Annual: $10,755/yr
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.61%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $124,880

Investor read

• This is a 5 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $446k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $896 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $179/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $446k).
• It's been on market 468 days — a 12% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $392k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,036/mo this rent would consume 166% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1287% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 468 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Appliances — Old and worn
• Major: Bathtubs — Signs of wear