Package Property 3 · Lubbock, TX 79415

$446,000

15 bd · 7.5 ba · 5,443 sqft · MultiFamily · 468 Days on market

Built 2012 Good condition 0.82 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 5 units. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

3 out of 5 of the units are rented, Pro-Forma cap rate is based on 100% occupancy.

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2012

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $446k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $896 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $179/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $446k).
• Recommended offer: $392k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,036/mo this rent would consume 166% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1287% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 468 days — a 12% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $392,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 468 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.61%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-15,114
• Equity at exit: $66,500

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $60,650
• Equity at exit: $38,562

Cash invested: $124,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79415

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 36.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,339
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$558 /mo · $6,690/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,058
• Net cashflow: $896

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,902

Max offer price $446,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,204	-5% $1,050	+0% $896	+5% $742	+10% $588
Rent	-10% $498	-5% $697	+0% $896	+5% $1,095	+10% $1,294
Rate	-1.0pp $1,121	-0.5pp $1,010	base $896	+0.5pp $781	+1.0pp $663

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	2	1	$5,035
Total (5 units)			$5,036

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,500
• Closing costs: $13,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $446,000 Active 468 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $446,000 Active 467 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $446,000 Active 466 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $446,000 Active 465 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $446,000 Active 463 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $446,000 Active 462 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $446,000 Active 460 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $446,000 Active 459 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $446,000 Active 458 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $446,000 Active 457 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $446,000 Active 454 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $446,000 Active 453 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $446,000 Active 452 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $446,000 Active 451 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $446,000 Active 450 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $446,000 Active 449 DOM
17. 2026-01-19
    price $446,000 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    3 out of 5 of the units are rented, Pro-Forma cap rate is based on 100% occupancy.

18. 2025-09-12
    status Active 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    3 out of 5 of the units are rented, Pro-Forma cap rate is based on 100% occupancy.

19. 2025-09-01
    historical 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    3 out of 5 of the units are rented, Pro-Forma cap rate is based on 100% occupancy.

20. 2025-02-24
    listed $442,000 Active 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    3 out of 5 of the units are rented, Pro-Forma cap rate is based on 100% occupancy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,983
• − Property taxes: −$6,690
• − Insurance: −$2,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,835
• − Management: −$4,835
• − Depreciation: −$12,975
• Taxable income: $3,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$932
• After-tax cash flow: $9,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family property is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. New appliances and a fresh bathtub would significantly boost its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Appliances — Old and worn
• Major Bathtubs — Signs of wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New appliances — Modern appliances attract buyers
• Resale Bathtub replacement — Fresh bathtubs improve appeal
• Both Landscaping upgrade — Enhances curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Appliances · Old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathtubs · Signs of wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New appliances — Modern appliances attract buyers ↑
• Resale Bathtub replacement — Fresh bathtubs improve appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping upgrade — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,794
• Household income: $36,468
• Rent vs Own: 62.9% rent · 37.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1287.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 26% Two or more races 19% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.79%
• Current HPI: 165.7933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $446,000 LARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Listed $442,000 LARMLS