1 Judywood Ln

Middle River, MD 21221

$57,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,771/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $999/mo
• Annual: $11,988/yr
• Cap rate: 27.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.95%
• DSCR: 4.29
• 1% rule: 3.06%
• Cash to close: $16,212

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $999 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $56k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $400 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Orems Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 366 students, 63% FRL); Stemmers Run Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 838 students, 68% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 39% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 27.0% vs local median 4.2% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.