594 Loop Dr

Camp Nelson, CA 93265

$314,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,066/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax + insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-268/mo
• Annual: $-3,218/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $87,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (34.2% below list).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 25/100 on livability (#1,489 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Springville Union Elementary (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #476 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $314k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.