439 E Strawberry St

Lancaster, PA 17602

$130,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Coming Soon · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,259/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $183/mo
• Annual: $2,200/yr
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.04%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (3.1% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#71 in PA, #498 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Lancaster SD (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #500 of 539 in PA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 335% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $130k implies a 373% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.