18830 Highway 99e #42

West Linn, OR 97045

$19,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1961 · Other · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,658/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax + insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $1,198/mo
• Annual: $14,380/yr
• Cap rate: 81.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 270.30%
• DSCR: 13.03
• 1% rule: 8.73%
• Cash to close: $5,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $19k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $19k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $18k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $570 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#20 in OR, #462 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Oregon City SD 62 (suburban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #40 of 58 in OR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Holcomb Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 528 students, 43% FRL); Tumwata Middle School (math 11% / reading 37%, grade F, #115 of 128 statewide, top 90%, 654 students, 34% FRL); Oregon City Senior High School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 1,931 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.