7004 BLVD E Unit 8C

Guttenberg, NJ 07093

$449,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,911 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,347/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$2,272
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$913
• Net cashflow: $-1,940/mo
• Annual: $-23,286/yr
• Cap rate: 1.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.52%
• DSCR: 0.18
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $449k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (62.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $435k (3.2% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (62.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#51 in NJ, #1,253 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Guttenberg School District (suburban): math 10% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #435 of 472 in NJ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anna L. Klein (math 10% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 949 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 52% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 447 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 2.3% in Guttenberg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $4,347/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.