1038 Robin Hill Ln

Wylie, TX 75407

$130,999C+

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 661 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,365/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$687
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $173/mo
• Annual: $2,077/yr
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.66%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $36,680

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $131k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $131k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $905 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.