1038 Robin Hill Ln · Wylie, TX 75407

$130,999

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 661 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $158k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The first level of this two-story home is host to an open floorplan shared between the kitchen and living room, helping to maximize the footprint of the home. The owner's suite is situated at the back of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides additional shared living space with another bathroom.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $144,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story plan (Henley)
• Construction: Living area approximately 661
• Exterior features: Address: 1038 Robin Hill Ln, Princeton TX 75407

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Henley plan); Virtual tour available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $131k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $131k).
• Recommended offer: $129k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $905 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,034 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.66%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,979
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1023 Bishop Creek Dr	0.03mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	2mo	$139,500	$211	97
1002 Robin Hill Ln	0.07mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	2mo	$174,264	$264	95
1019 Bishop Creek Dr	0.03mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	6mo	$155,674	$236	94
1008 Robin Hill Ln	0.06mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	4mo	$151,674	$229	93
1017 Bishop Creek Dr	0.04mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	6mo	$157,674	$239	93
1011 Bishop Creek Dr	0.06mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	6mo	$149,124	$226	92
1013 Bishop Creek Dr	0.04mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	8mo	$157,884	$239	92
1009 Bishop Creek Dr	0.06mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	7mo	$156,674	$237	92
1007 Bishop Creek Dr	0.06mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	7mo	$163,499	$247	91
1010 Robin Hill Ln	0.06mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	8mo	$149,149	$226	91
1005 Bishop Creek Dr	0.06mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	8mo	$168,674	$255	90
1004 Robin Hill Ln	0.07mi	1/2.0	661 (0%)	9mo	$170,999	$259	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-14,182
• Equity at exit: $19,532

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-13,529
• Equity at exit: $11,326

Cash invested: $36,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$687
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$164 /mo · $1,965/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $130,999

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,750
• Closing costs: $3,930
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 Robin Hill LN Princeton, TX	1.0	2.0	661	$1,300	$1.97	43d	1	0.06mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,999 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,999 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,999 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,999 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,999 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $130,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,999 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,999 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,999 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,999 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,999 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 339-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $144,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,338
• − Property taxes: −$1,965
• − Insurance: −$655
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − Depreciation: −$3,811
• Taxable loss: −$9
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2
• After-tax cash flow: $2,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Resale Replace window seals — Improves energy efficiency and reduces maintenance costs.
• Both Install smart home technology — Enhances convenience and marketability for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace window seals — Improves energy efficiency and reduces maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Enhances convenience and marketability for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B