201 Janny Dr

Howardwick, TX 79226

$49,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $792/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $320/mo
• Annual: $3,841/yr
• Cap rate: 13.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.49%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($792 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,173 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Clarendon ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #175 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Donley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Donley County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.