201 Janny Dr · Howardwick, TX 79226

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1974

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Get AWAY- to Howardwick. Play golf, explore the lake, or just sit on the porch and drink coffee. Time moves at a different pace HERE. This 2/1 comes furnished, so all you need to do is pack a bag. The carport and cellar provide extra peace of mind, and the extra out buildings give you storage for any necessary tools or a place to tinker. Don't wait. Home is being sold ''AS IS''.

Key facts

• Cellar
• Carport
• Furnished

Tags

• FURNISHED
• CARPORT
• CELLAR
• OUT BUILDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Frame construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built with typical residential materials
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($792 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,173 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Clarendon ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #175 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Donley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Donley County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.49%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $28,143
• Equity at exit: $24,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $69,492
• Equity at exit: $38,984

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79226

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $280/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $387

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $49,900 Active 381-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $280 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$634/yr (+$53/mo · 226.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$280
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$761
• − Management: −$761
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $3,210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$770
• After-tax cash flow: $3,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarendon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814160
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,724
• Composite: 43.12/100
• National rank: #3082
• State rank: #175 of 826 in TX

Livability — Howardwick

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1173
• US rank: #20518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Howardwick, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,873

Population outlook (Donley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,008 people
• By 2030: 2,777 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 2,419 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 2,224 · -26.1%
• By 2075: 2,018 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 1,949 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 6% Asian 3% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Donley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.2) · D 10.2% · R 88.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -64.1pp · 2024: -78.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.2 2020: R+75.2 2016: R+70.9 2012: R+69.2 2008: R+64.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Current HPI: 85.0932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $49,900 AARMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $280 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.