7707 Bar K Ranch Rd

Lago Vista, TX 78645

$295,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,720/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-75/mo
• Annual: $-905/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-905/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (7.8% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1092 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 19 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.3% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.