341 Redwood Ln

Fruit Cove, FL 32259

$220,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 153 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,965/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$308
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-299/mo
• Annual: $-3,589/yr
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.83%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (10.7% below list).
• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 762 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $220k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Fruit Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($151k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.