7625 Lilly Dr

Southaven, MS 38671

$189,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,097 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,531/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-217/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $53,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-217/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (19.2% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#107 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenbrook Elementary School (502 students, 99% FRL); Southaven Middle School (math 33% / reading 25%, grade F, #90 of 179 statewide, top 52%, 1,456 students, 100% FRL); Southaven High School (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #88 of 197 statewide, top 45%, 1,850 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Desoto County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.