7625 Lilly Dr · Southaven, MS 38671

$189,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,097 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1994 4,356 sqft lot Est $200k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two bedroom, two bathroom home in Southaven conveniently located within walking distance of Southaven Intermediate School and Baptist DeSoto Hospital. Split plan home with two car parking pad and fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Split plan home
• Fenced backyard
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPLIT PLAN HOME
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; House; One level; Living area reported as 1,097 (per public records)
• Construction: Brick and brick veneer construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Wood fence; Lot approximately 0.1 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator; Move-in ready condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-217/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#107 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenbrook Elementary School (502 students, 99% FRL); Southaven Middle School (math 33% / reading 25%, grade F, #90 of 179 statewide, top 52%, 1,456 students, 100% FRL); Southaven High School (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #88 of 197 statewide, top 45%, 1,850 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Desoto County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,134 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,654
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7640 Iris Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+0%)	2mo	$199,900	$182	94
7629 Iris Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,121 (+2%)	3mo	$209,900	$187	91
7633 Iris Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+0%)	12mo	$200,000	$182	87
7594 Lilly Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,091 (-0%)	12mo	$210,000	$192	86
7708 Lilly Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,117 (+2%)	14mo	$215,000	$192	78
7588 Lilly Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	8mo	$215,000	$179	74
167 Tackett Run	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+6%)	9mo	$199,900	$172	67
7693 Iris Cv	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+9%)	14mo	$219,900	$183	61
7161 Lynnease Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,167 (+6%)	19mo	$192,000	$165	60
7181 Lynnease Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (+10%)	10mo	$199,000	$164	57
8194 Elmbrook Dr	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (+4%)	9mo	$169,900	$149	44
7171 Kimlee Cv	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,245 (+14%)	19mo	$219,900	$177	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-31,579
• Equity at exit: $28,255

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-27,822
• Equity at exit: $16,384

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38671

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,862/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,554

Max offer price $186,300

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7456 Overlook Dr Southaven, MS	2.0	2.0	1212	$1,550	$1.28	44d	1	0.16mi
7711 Iris Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,710	$1.33	3d	1	0.20mi
7187 Gazebo Dr Southaven, MS	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,450	$1.41	15d	1	0.28mi
330 Avery Jordan Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,605	$1.31	4d	1	0.47mi
371 Alex Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	2d	1	0.55mi
8061 Creekwood Cir W Southaven, MS	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,550	$1.19	17d	1	0.60mi
8082 Whitebrook Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.61mi
8085 Creekwood Cir E Southaven, MS	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.65mi
7654 Stonycreek Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,650	$1.28	21d	1	0.67mi
769 Barrington Woods Cv Unit 6 Southaven, MS	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	24d	1	0.75mi
817 Barrington Woods Cv Southaven, MS	2.0	1.5	1176	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	0.78mi
818 Barrington Woods Cv Unit 769-6 Southaven, MS	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	24d	1	0.80mi
818 Barrington Woods Cv Unit 817 Southaven, MS	2.0	1.5	1176	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	0.80mi
8254 Pinebrook Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,385	$1.26	44d	1	0.93mi
8375 Old Forge Rd Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,295	$1.20	4d	1	0.95mi
1104 Atterbury Cir S Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,660	$1.22	44d	1	1.07mi
863 Hackberry Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,665	$1.11	3d	1	1.07mi
875 Hackberry Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,525	$1.19	21d	1	1.08mi
970 Millcreek Pl Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,550	$1.24	15d	1	1.19mi
7560 Chesteridge Ave Southaven, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,312	$1.48	2d	7	1.20mi
845 Rockwall Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	1.5	1229	$1,450	$1.18	44d	1	1.21mi
1000 Sutton Pl Horn Lake, MS	1.0	1.0	900	$1,336	$1.48	44d	1	1.24mi
1000 Sutton Pl Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,540	$1.40	44d	1	1.24mi
1000 Sutton Pl Horn Lake, MS	1.0	1.0	900	$1,454	$1.62	12d	1	1.24mi
1000 Sutton Pl Horn Lake, MS	1.0	1.0	900	$1,328	$1.48	3d	1	1.24mi
8743 Greenbrook Pkwy Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1229	$1,590	$1.29	21d	1	1.28mi
842 Farmington Dr N Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	4d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,500 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,500 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,500 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $189,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 212-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$1,862
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$3,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$840
• After-tax cash flow: $623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Southaven

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #12584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southaven, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 53,755
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 37,319
• Household income: $61,843
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1583.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.08%
• Current HPI: 220.7875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+16218.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $195,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-03 Rental Removed $1,195 BUILDIUM
• 2025-04-29 Listed for Rent $1,195 BUILDIUM
• 2025-04-29 Rental Removed $1,195 MLSU
• 2025-04-25 Listed for Rent $1,195 MLSU
• 2006-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,862 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.