315 Kennely Rd

Thomas, MI 48609

$125,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Built 1971 · Condo · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,627/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$282
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $139/mo
• Annual: $1,673/yr
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.78%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shields Elementary School (435 students, 40% FRL); Swan Valley Middle School (math 34% / reading 50%, grade D-, #186 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 386 students, 39% FRL); Swan Valley High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 536 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 14 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — severely dated and worn
• Major: kitchen appliances — outdated and non-functional
• Major: bathroom fixtures — outdated and non-functional
• Major: flooring — dated and worn carpet
• Major: interior walls/paint — dated and worn paint