315 Kennely Rd · Thomas, MI 48609

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · Condo · 36 Days on market

Built 1971 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Swan Valley Condominiums - 2nd floor unit, 2 beds / 2 baths, 1 car garage.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1971
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association laundry amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium; One level
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Slab foundation; Built as residential condominium
• Exterior features: On golf course lot; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator; Range
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Radiant heating
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator; Range
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Swan Valley School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #104 of 540 in MI (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shields Elementary School (435 students, 40% FRL); Swan Valley Middle School (math 34% / reading 50%, grade D-, #186 of 493 statewide, top 39%, 386 students, 39% FRL); Swan Valley High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 536 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.78%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-11,179
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,501
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48609

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$282
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,450

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $183	+0% $139	+5% $96	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $11	-5% $75	+0% $139	+5% $204	+10% $268
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $171	base $139	+0.5pp $107	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    listed $130,000 Active 74-char remark

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Swan Valley Condominiums - 2nd floor unit, 2 beds / 2 baths, 1 car garage.

19. 2026-05-16
    listed $130,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (74 chars)

    Swan Valley Condominiums - 2nd floor unit, 2 beds / 2 baths, 1 car garage.

20. 2024-12-09
    soldstatus $146,000 Sold 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

21. 2024-12-09
    soldstatus $146,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

22. 2024-11-13
    status Pending 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

23. 2024-11-13
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

24. 2024-10-28
    status Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

25. 2024-10-28
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

26. 2024-10-25
    status Pending 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

27. 2024-10-25
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

28. 2024-10-09
    status Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

29. 2024-10-09
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

30. 2024-10-04
    historical Contingent - Continue To Show 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

31. 2024-10-04
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

32. 2024-09-30
    listed $149,900 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

33. 2024-09-30
    listed $149,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautifully done two bedrooms and two baths condo in Swan Valley. Updated kitchen with white cabinets and counter top, appliances including refrigerator, stove, dishwasher and microwave, even a cute breakfast nook. Formal dining area and oversized living room. Lots of closet space, tastefully decorated newer flooring and paint. Sunroom that over looks the golf course and covered extra porch area for outdoor meals. First floor laundry room and garage for parking. Call Now!

34. 2023-09-06
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
35. 2023-08-18
    historical
36. 2023-08-18
    listed $145,000
37. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $119,900 Sold
38. 2022-03-29
    status Pending
39. 2022-03-08
    listed $124,900 Active
40. 2021-04-29
    soldstatus $87,500 Sold
41. 2021-03-19
    status Pending
42. 2021-03-16
    listed $86,900 Active
43. 2019-10-02
    soldstatus $63,000 Sold
44. 2019-09-17
    status Pending
45. 2019-08-20
    price $66,900
46. 2019-07-09
    listed $69,900 Active
47. 2003-12-02
    historical
48. 2003-11-26
    soldstatus $87,500
49. 2003-11-26
    soldstatus $87,500
50. 2003-07-08
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − HOA: −$3,384
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$30
• After-tax cash flow: $1,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo requires a moderate renovation to modernize the kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and interior walls/paint. The property has a good roof and exterior, but the dated systems and overall condition are holding back its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely dated and worn
• Major kitchen appliances — outdated and non-functional
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and non-functional
• Major flooring — dated and worn carpet
• Major interior walls/paint — dated and worn paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both flooring replacement — replacing the carpet with a more modern and durable flooring option would increase both resale and rental value
• Both paint job — painting the interior walls and ceilings with a fresh, modern color would increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen appliances · outdated and non-functional	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and non-functional	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · dated and worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · dated and worn paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both flooring replacement — replacing the carpet with a more modern and durable flooring option would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint job — painting the interior walls and ceilings with a fresh, modern color would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Swan Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2633410
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,994
• Composite: 42.38/100
• National rank: #3241
• State rank: #104 of 540 in MI

Livability — Thomas

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shields, MI
• Population (ZIP): 12,206

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.03%
• Current HPI: 179.2881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+44.6% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-16 Listed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-09 Sold (MLS) $146,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-12-09 Sold (MLS) $146,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-28 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-28 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-25 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-25 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-09 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-09 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-04 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-04 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-30 Listed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-30 Listed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-09-06 Sold (MLS) $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-08-18 Listed $145,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-08-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-26 Sold (MLS) $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-03-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-03-08 Listed $124,900 REALCOMP
• 2021-04-29 Sold (MLS) $87,500 REALCOMP
• 2021-03-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-03-16 Listed $86,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-10-02 Sold (MLS) $63,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-09-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-08-20 Price Changed $66,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-07-09 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-12-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-11-26 Sold (MLS) $87,500 REALCOMP
• 2003-11-26 Sold (MLS) $87,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-07-08 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-07-08 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS