6212 Stumberg Ln #202

Baton Rouge, LA 70816

$129,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,132 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,351/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$390
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-170/mo
• Annual: $-2,044/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.66%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (23.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#24 in LA, #4,535 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment D-.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Parkview Elementary School (math 47% / reading 64%, grade C, #89 of 646 statewide, top 14%, 539 students, 68% FRL); Woodlawn Middle School (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #116 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 887 students, 69% FRL); Woodlawn High School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #133 of 265 statewide, top 51%, 1,527 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 255 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 12 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?