281 Candy Kitchen Rd

Candy Kitchen, NM 87357

$110,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Built 1988 · Other · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $169/mo
• Annual: $2,027/yr
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.58%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (5.9% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $103k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP.
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.