281 Candy Kitchen Rd · Candy Kitchen, NM 87357

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Other · 4 Days on market

Built 1988 24 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Frontage location on the main Candy Kitchen road. Has electricity and a well. There is an old 2304 sq. ft. home on this 23.76 acres. Ask for more information! There is so much potential here! Call and ask today! There are adjacent properties for sale to expand your homestead! Owner Financing available!!!

Key facts

• 23.76 acres
• Electricity
• Well

Tags

• FRONTAGE LOCATION
• MAIN CANDY KITCHEN ROAD
• ELECTRICITY
• WELL
• 23.76 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $486.76 annual tax

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Private water source; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential property
• Exterior features: Irregular lot; 23.76-acre parcel

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified
• Interior features: No central heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,460 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.58%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $23,955
• Equity at exit: $49,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $70,145
• Equity at exit: $76,225

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87357

• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $309/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $821

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $200	+0% $169	+5% $138	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $128	+0% $169	+5% $210	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $197	base $169	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $110,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $110,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   remarks 305-char remark
5. 2026-05-31
   listed $110,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $309 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $880 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$571/yr (+$48/mo · 184.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$309
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$993
• − Management: −$993
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$50
• After-tax cash flow: $1,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants-Cibola County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501170
• Math proficiency: 14% —
• Reading proficiency: 22% —
• Median HH income: $35,996
• Composite: 18.23/100
• National rank: #14064
• State rank: #74 of 95 in NM

Livability — Candy Kitchen

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Candy Kitchen, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,162

Population outlook (Cibola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,324 people
• By 2030: 25,594 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 24,117 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 22,568 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,653 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 12,719 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.98)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 91% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cibola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.6pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-81.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $110,000 NMMLS
• 2022-09-20 Listed $599,000 Santa Fe MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $309 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.