1603 Swallowtail Dr

Cleburne, TX 76033

$114,995B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $631/mo
• Annual: $7,572/yr
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.52%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $32,199

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gerard El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 567 students, 51% FRL); Lowell Smith Jr Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 929 students, 68% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.