1603 Swallowtail Dr · Cleburne, TX 76033

$114,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this beautifully crafted 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offering 1,584 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space where comfort meets modern elegance. The open-concept layout creates a natural flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas-perfect for hosting, gathering, or simply enjoying the rhythm of everyday life. The kitchen is both stylish and functional, featuring a large island, stainless steel appliances, and abundant cabinetry. The spacious primary suite provides a private retreat with an en suite bath designed for relaxation, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, hobbies, or the moments that matter most. Beyond your front door, discover a communi

Key facts

• Large island
• Abundant cabinetry
• Private retreat

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• EN SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Spec inventory type
• Financial info: Listed as Active

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and power; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family spec home, Plan M66A
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,584 (listed)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes microwave, refrigerator, dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,545 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.52%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $16,294
• Equity at exit: $17,146

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $45,611
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76033

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $114,995

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $710	-5% $671	+0% $631	+5% $591	+10% $552
Rent	-10% $488	-5% $560	+0% $631	+5% $702	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $689	-0.5pp $660	base $631	+0.5pp $601	+1.0pp $571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,749
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 Park Blvd Cleburne, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1456	$1,795	$1.23	0d	17	0.07mi
1410 Hyde Park Blvd Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$2,111	$1.38	2d	1	0.75mi
1203 Stonelake Dr Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,000	$1.29	6d	1	0.84mi
1502 Sharron Ct Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	26d	1	0.85mi
1502 Sharron Ct Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,400	$1.28	23d	1	0.85mi
1404 Chaucer Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,895	$1.61	0d	1	0.90mi
1211 Larkspur Ln Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,250	$1.25	0d	1	1.05mi
807 W Smith St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,845	$1.51	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,995 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,995 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,995 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,995 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,995 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,995 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,995 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,995 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $114,995 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,995 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,995 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,995 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,995 Active 13 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $6,105
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,465
• After-tax cash flow: $6,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully crafted 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,584 sq ft of open-concept living space with modern elegance. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 29,538
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,538
• Household income: $76,292
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 927.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.75%
• Current HPI: 246.0029
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B