950 E Main St

Breckenridge, MO 64625

$99,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,069 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,266/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $401/mo
• Annual: $4,813/yr
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.36%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#796 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Breckenridge R-I (rural): math 11% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #488 of 535 in MO (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caldwell County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.