950 E Main St · Breckenridge, MO 64625

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,069 sqft · Other public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1920 10,803 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated sellers! This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 2,069 sq ft of living space and a large fenced-in yard. With tons of new updates already completed, this property is a great opportunity for homeowners looking for space or investors seeking a solid rental or value add property.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#796 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Breckenridge R-I (rural): math 11% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #488 of 535 in MO (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caldwell County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.36%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $79,429
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.71×
• Total profit: $213,751
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64625

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $467/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $759

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $429	+0% $401	+5% $373	+10% $345
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $351	+0% $401	+5% $451	+10% $501
Rate	-1.0pp $451	-0.5pp $426	base $401	+0.5pp $375	+1.0pp $349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   Motivated sellers! This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 2,069 sq ft of living space and a large fenced-in yard. With tons of new updates already completed, this property is a great opportunity for homeowners looking for space or investors seeking a solid rental or value add property.

2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   Motivated sellers! This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 2,069 sq ft of living space and a large fenced-in yard. With tons of new updates already completed, this property is a great opportunity for homeowners looking for space or investors seeking a solid rental or value add property.

3. 2026-04-13
   status Active 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   Motivated sellers! This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 2,069 sq ft of living space and a large fenced-in yard. With tons of new updates already completed, this property is a great opportunity for homeowners looking for space or investors seeking a solid rental or value add property.

4. 2026-04-13
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   Motivated sellers! This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 2,069 sq ft of living space and a large fenced-in yard. With tons of new updates already completed, this property is a great opportunity for homeowners looking for space or investors seeking a solid rental or value add property.

5. 2026-04-06
   status Pending 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   Motivated sellers! This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 2,069 sq ft of living space and a large fenced-in yard. With tons of new updates already completed, this property is a great opportunity for homeowners looking for space or investors seeking a solid rental or value add property.

6. 2026-04-06
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   Motivated sellers! This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 2,069 sq ft of living space and a large fenced-in yard. With tons of new updates already completed, this property is a great opportunity for homeowners looking for space or investors seeking a solid rental or value add property.

7. 2026-03-18
   listed $99,000 Active 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   Motivated sellers! This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 2,069 sq ft of living space and a large fenced-in yard. With tons of new updates already completed, this property is a great opportunity for homeowners looking for space or investors seeking a solid rental or value add property.

8. 2026-03-18
   listed $99,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   Motivated sellers! This spacious 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers 2,069 sq ft of living space and a large fenced-in yard. With tons of new updates already completed, this property is a great opportunity for homeowners looking for space or investors seeking a solid rental or value add property.

9. 2014-10-24
   soldstatus 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   2 bedroom bungalow home with a large front porch, back deck, and wood privacy fence. Master bedroom with master bathroom and adjoining sunroom, large living room, kitchen with skylights, and a fireplace in the family room. This Home is Owned by the U. S. Dept. of Housing & Urban Development (HUD). This HUD Home is Sold AS-IS/WHERE-IS with Any and All Faults. Buyer Must have a current Mortgage Commitment or Proof of Cash Funds.

10. 2014-05-24
    listed $13,900 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    2 bedroom bungalow home with a large front porch, back deck, and wood privacy fence. Master bedroom with master bathroom and adjoining sunroom, large living room, kitchen with skylights, and a fireplace in the family room. This Home is Owned by the U. S. Dept. of Housing & Urban Development (HUD). This HUD Home is Sold AS-IS/WHERE-IS with Any and All Faults. Buyer Must have a current Mortgage Commitment or Proof of Cash Funds.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $467 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$493/yr (+$41/mo · 105.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$467
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$810
• After-tax cash flow: $4,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckenridge R-I
• NCES district ID: 2905850
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $37,511
• Composite: 24.25/100
• National rank: #13130
• State rank: #488 of 535 in MO

Livability — Breckenridge

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #796
• US rank: #24091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Breckenridge, MO
• Population (ZIP): 800

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,255 people
• By 2030: 7,838 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 7,034 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 6,330 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 5,206 · -36.9%
• By 2100: 4,436 · -46.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.3) · D 18.9% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.9pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -61.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.3 2020: R+60.4 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+33.8 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.59%
• Current HPI: 439.9032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+612.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NECAR
• 2026-04-21 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — NECAR
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Pending — NECAR
• 2026-04-06 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $99,000 NECAR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $99,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-24 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-24 Listed $13,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $467 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.