2811 Lyons Center Rd

Vidalia, GA 30436

$89,000A

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2008 · Other · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $742/mo
• Annual: $8,899/yr
• Cap rate: 16.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.71%
• DSCR: 2.59
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $742 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#377 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Toombs County (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Toombs Central Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #227 of 1,228 statewide, top 19%, 502 students, 86% FRL); Toombs County Middle School (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #271 of 470 statewide, top 60%, 670 students, 87% FRL); Toombs County High School (math 28% / reading 17%, grade F, #210 of 424 statewide, top 50%, 853 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Toombs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Toombs County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $89k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.9% in Vidalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.