10906 Shady Oaks Dr

Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$194,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,571/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax + insurance: −$286
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-64/mo
• Annual: $-770/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $54,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-770/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (19.2% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jacksboro ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #337 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jacksboro El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 497 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro Middle (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 251 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 335 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 44% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 344 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.