10906 Shady Oaks Dr · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$194,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2009 9,453 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $192k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity for : 20 Homes on Same Street. Square footage is approximately the same on each home and is renter occupied. This one listed is one of the homes. Sellers would like to sell all homes as a group but would be open to a purchase of groups of 10 of the homes as an investment opportunity. Homes are approximately 1433 Square Feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Each home includes a stove, Refrigerator, and dishwasher.

Key facts

• 9,453 sq ft lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Standard listing conditions; Possession at closing/funding; Survey available
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, and VA Loan
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two-story; Not attached to other properties; Deed restrictions
• Construction: Built in 2009; Brick and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered, screened front porch; Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Large backyard with grass; Few trees; Grassed vegetation; Easement for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1; two additional bedrooms on level 2 with split-bedroom layout)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric heating; Solar heating assistance
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; 7 total rooms; One living area; One dining area; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-770/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jacksboro ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #337 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jacksboro El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 497 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro Middle (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 251 students, 68% FRL); Jacksboro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 335 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 44% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,126 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,348
• List price: $194,500
• Delta: 1.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,152
• Equity at exit: $48,632

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,713
• Equity at exit: $52,515

Cash invested: $54,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,454/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $183,161

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $-9	+0% $-64	+5% $-119	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-126	+0% $-64	+5% $-2	+10% $60
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-15	base $-64	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,625
• Closing costs: $5,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10915 Shady Oaks Dr Runaway Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,398	$0.94	0d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,500 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,500 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,500 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,500 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,500 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,500 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,500 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,500 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,500 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $194,500 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $199,000 Active 921-char remark
17. 2021-11-09
    soldstatus
18. 2020-08-27
    soldstatus
19. 2020-08-26
    soldstatus Sold 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Investment Opportunity for : 20 Homes on Same Street. Square footage is approximately the same on each home and is renter occupied. This one listed is one of the homes. Sellers would like to sell all homes as a group but would be open to a purchase of groups of 10 of the homes as an investment opportunity. Homes are approximately 1433 Square Feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Each home includes a stove, Refrigerator, and dishwasher.

20. 2020-08-07
    status Pending 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Investment Opportunity for : 20 Homes on Same Street. Square footage is approximately the same on each home and is renter occupied. This one listed is one of the homes. Sellers would like to sell all homes as a group but would be open to a purchase of groups of 10 of the homes as an investment opportunity. Homes are approximately 1433 Square Feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Each home includes a stove, Refrigerator, and dishwasher.

21. 2020-07-28
    historical Active Option Contract 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Investment Opportunity for : 20 Homes on Same Street. Square footage is approximately the same on each home and is renter occupied. This one listed is one of the homes. Sellers would like to sell all homes as a group but would be open to a purchase of groups of 10 of the homes as an investment opportunity. Homes are approximately 1433 Square Feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Each home includes a stove, Refrigerator, and dishwasher.

22. 2020-02-13
    listed $139,000 Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Investment Opportunity for : 20 Homes on Same Street. Square footage is approximately the same on each home and is renter occupied. This one listed is one of the homes. Sellers would like to sell all homes as a group but would be open to a purchase of groups of 10 of the homes as an investment opportunity. Homes are approximately 1433 Square Feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Each home includes a stove, Refrigerator, and dishwasher.

23. 2016-09-01
    historical
24. 2016-06-03
    listed $120,000 Active
25. 2010-04-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,454 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,559 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,106/yr (+$92/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,895
• − Property taxes: −$2,454
• − Insurance: −$972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$5,658
• Taxable loss: −$4,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$994
• After-tax cash flow: $224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824530
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,739
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4802
• State rank: #337 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+62.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $194,500 NTREIS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2021-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-08-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-07-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-02-13 Listed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2016-09-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-06-03 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2010-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+22.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,454 · +46.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.