15631 Thompson Dr

Albion, NY 14477

$199,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$491
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-717/mo
• Annual: $-8,603/yr
• Cap rate: 1.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.37%
• DSCR: 0.32
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-717 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (51.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (48.0% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $98k (51.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,009 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kendall Central School District (rural): math 74% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #117 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Kendall Elementary School (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 355 students, 56% FRL); Kendall Junior-Senior High School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A-, #583 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 325 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 35% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $200k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 4.1% in Albion — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?