15631 Thompson Dr · Albion, NY 14477

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1952 8,100 sqft lot $236/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity Knocks! ~ Cozy Ranch Waiting for Your Updates ~ 60' of Shoreline with a Flat Yard ~ Rebuilt Break Wall ~ 20 Minutes to Lake Ontario Parkway & I-390 Entrance ~ Close Proximity to Hamlin Beach State Park ~ Create a Private Retreat, Use as a Rental, or Remove and Start Over (subject to local zoning regulations) ~ Estate Comes "As-Is" ~ Delayed Negotiations begin Tuesday, 5/12/26 @ Noon

Key facts

• 8,100 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Water connected (public); Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Has view; Waterfront with beach access to a lake; City street frontage
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Shed(s) / storage; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms; 5 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Living/Dining room; Bedroom on main level; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-717 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (51.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (48.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (51.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 4.1% in Albion — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,009 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kendall Central School District (rural): math 74% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #117 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Kendall Elementary School (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 355 students, 56% FRL); Kendall Junior-Senior High School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A-, #583 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 325 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 35% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $200k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,741 (51.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.37%
• DSCR: 0.32
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,469
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -57.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $32,549
• Equity at exit: $147,346

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $128,521
• Equity at exit: $288,268

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14477

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$407 /mo · $4,887/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,948

Max offer price $97,741

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-604	-5% $-660	+0% $-717	+5% $-773	+10% $-830
Rent	-10% $-799	-5% $-758	+0% $-717	+5% $-676	+10% $-635
Rate	-1.0pp $-616	-0.5pp $-666	base $-717	+0.5pp $-769	+1.0pp $-821

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 413-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $199,900 Active 413-char remark
3. 1996-08-29
   soldstatus $77,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,887 · $407/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,887 · $407/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,887
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$999
• − Management: −$999
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$12,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kendall Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616200
• Math proficiency: 74% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $56,456
• Composite: 62.48/100
• National rank: #689
• State rank: #117 of 590 in NY

Livability — Albion

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1009
• US rank: #19661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,779

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.67%
• Current HPI: 296.9489
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+158.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $199,900 UNYREIS
• 1996-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $77,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,887 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.