4016 Cortez Dr Unit D

Egypt Lake-Leto, FL 33614

$127,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,699/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$515
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-879/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $35,560

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $127k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-879/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (10.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crestwood Elementary School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 781 students, 74% FRL); Pierce Middle School (math 35% / reading 32%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 845 students, 72% FRL); Leto High School (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,062 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?