356 Oakleigh Ave #17

Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$465,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1953 · Condo · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,515/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax + insurance: −$499
• HOA: −$183
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$948
• Net cashflow: $447/mo
• Annual: $5,361/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $130,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $465k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $452k (2.9% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $423k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $465k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $130k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.