356 Oakleigh Ave #17 · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$465,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Condo public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1953 $346/sqft · 36% below area Est $725k · 36% under $183/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Summer will be here before you know it - get your vacation home in order! Spacious 4 season mother/daughter setup cottage (2 bedrooms upstairs and 1 bedroom downstairs) in a lovely scenic beachfront community of 38 cottages with character and private feel! Featuring today's amenities with the charm of yesteryear. Private beach access for residents only, playground, picnic area, clubhouse, rooftop terrace with waterviews! Entertainers delight with a formal dining room, patio and deck! Lower level has a sauna and new egress windows in addition to a separate outside entrance. Young roof, 3 new skylights, new deck and patio, upgraded 200 amp electric, new oil tank with a service contract, washer and dryer, new stove, new electric fireplace, 2 dedicated parking spots plus visitor parking! Cottage is usable year round and eligible for mortgage financing. Pet friendly (breed restrictions). Near Wineries, Golf, Zoo, Aquarium, Farm Stands, Outlets, Horse Farms, Splish Splash, Restaurants, Hamptons. Please note that this is NOT a land lease and NOT Woodcliff Park! Land under the cottage and under the deck is included. Peconic land tax applies - payable by the buyer

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Patio and deck
• Private beach access

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• ROOFTOP WITH WATERVIEWS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• PATIO AND DECK
• LOWER LEVEL HAS A SAUNA
• NEW EGRESS WINDOWS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $465,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$725,386) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $447 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $452k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $423k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $130k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $465k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $423,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $725,386
• List price: $465,000
• Delta: -35.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $90,904
• Equity at exit: $215,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $275,939
• Equity at exit: $338,160

Cash invested: $130,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,660/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$948
• Net cashflow: $447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,950

Max offer price $465,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $710	-5% $578	+0% $447	+5% $315	+10% $184
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $268	+0% $447	+5% $625	+10% $803
Rate	-1.0pp $681	-0.5pp $565	base $447	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,250
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44 Fox Hill Dr Calverton, NY	2.0	2.0	1638	$3,900	$2.38	13d	1	0.16mi
1834 Edwards Ave Calverton, NY	3.0	1.5	1344	$7,500	$5.58	25d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $465,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $465,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $465,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $465,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $465,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $465,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $465,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $465,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $465,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $465,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $465,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $465,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    price $499,200 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Summer will be here before you know it - get your vacation home in order! Spacious 4 season mother/daughter setup cottage (2 bedrooms upstairs and 1 bedroom downstairs) in a lovely scenic beachfront community of 38 cottages with character and private feel! Featuring today's amenities with the charm of yesteryear. Private beach access for residents only, playground, picnic area, clubhouse, rooftop terrace with waterviews! Entertainers delight with a formal dining room, patio and deck! Lower level has a sauna and new egress windows in addition to a separate outside entrance. Young roof, 3 new skylights, new deck and patio, upgraded 200 amp electric, new oil tank with a service contract, washer and dryer, new stove, new electric fireplace, 2 dedicated parking spots plus visitor parking! Cottage is usable year round and eligible for mortgage financing. Pet friendly (breed restrictions). Near Wineries, Golf, Zoo, Aquarium, Farm Stands, Outlets, Horse Farms, Splish Splash, Restaurants, Hamptons. Please note that this is NOT a land lease and NOT Woodcliff Park! Land under the cottage and under the deck is included. Peconic land tax applies - payable by the buyer

15. 2026-03-10
    listed $519,000 Active 1175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1175 chars)

    Summer will be here before you know it - get your vacation home in order! Spacious 4 season mother/daughter setup cottage (2 bedrooms upstairs and 1 bedroom downstairs) in a lovely scenic beachfront community of 38 cottages with character and private feel! Featuring today's amenities with the charm of yesteryear. Private beach access for residents only, playground, picnic area, clubhouse, rooftop terrace with waterviews! Entertainers delight with a formal dining room, patio and deck! Lower level has a sauna and new egress windows in addition to a separate outside entrance. Young roof, 3 new skylights, new deck and patio, upgraded 200 amp electric, new oil tank with a service contract, washer and dryer, new stove, new electric fireplace, 2 dedicated parking spots plus visitor parking! Cottage is usable year round and eligible for mortgage financing. Pet friendly (breed restrictions). Near Wineries, Golf, Zoo, Aquarium, Farm Stands, Outlets, Horse Farms, Splish Splash, Restaurants, Hamptons. Please note that this is NOT a land lease and NOT Woodcliff Park! Land under the cottage and under the deck is included. Peconic land tax applies - payable by the buyer

16. 2013-09-09
    soldstatus $265,000
17. 2013-08-19
    soldstatus $265,000 Closed 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Usable Year-Round: Central Heat And Air, Lovely Beachfront Community, Fully Insulated Home Inclduing Floors, Cathedral Ceilings, 3 Decks, Li Sound View, Sauna, Hardwood Floors, Full Security System With Central Station Alarm And 24/7 Video Surveillance. Supermint Condition. Taxes And Common Charges Are Yearly Figures

18. 2013-08-19
    soldstatus $265,000

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Usable Year-Round: Central Heat And Air, Lovely Beachfront Community, Fully Insulated Home Inclduing Floors, Cathedral Ceilings, 3 Decks, Li Sound View, Sauna, Hardwood Floors, Full Security System With Central Station Alarm And 24/7 Video Surveillance. Supermint Condition. Taxes And Common Charges Are Yearly Figures

19. 2013-08-01
    status Under Contract 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Usable Year-Round: Central Heat And Air, Lovely Beachfront Community, Fully Insulated Home Inclduing Floors, Cathedral Ceilings, 3 Decks, Li Sound View, Sauna, Hardwood Floors, Full Security System With Central Station Alarm And 24/7 Video Surveillance. Supermint Condition. Taxes And Common Charges Are Yearly Figures

20. 2013-04-05
    listed $279,000 New 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Usable Year-Round: Central Heat And Air, Lovely Beachfront Community, Fully Insulated Home Inclduing Floors, Cathedral Ceilings, 3 Decks, Li Sound View, Sauna, Hardwood Floors, Full Security System With Central Station Alarm And 24/7 Video Surveillance. Supermint Condition. Taxes And Common Charges Are Yearly Figures

21. 2013-04-05
    listed $279,000

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Usable Year-Round: Central Heat And Air, Lovely Beachfront Community, Fully Insulated Home Inclduing Floors, Cathedral Ceilings, 3 Decks, Li Sound View, Sauna, Hardwood Floors, Full Security System With Central Station Alarm And 24/7 Video Surveillance. Supermint Condition. Taxes And Common Charges Are Yearly Figures

22. 2000-08-16
    soldstatus $150,000
23. 1983-01-28
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,759 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,099/yr (+$175/mo · 57.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$3,660
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,335
• − Management: −$4,335
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$538
• After-tax cash flow: $5,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2070.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $499,200 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $519,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2013-08-19 Sold (MLS) $265,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-19 Sold (MLS) $265,000 MLSLI
• 2013-08-01 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-04-05 Listed $279,000 MLSLI
• 2013-04-05 Listed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 1983-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,660 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.