245 Red Fox Ln

Jefferson, TX 75670

$129,500D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,231/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $154/mo
• Annual: $1,851/yr
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.10%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $36,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (4.9% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Marshall ISD (town): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #658 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.