245 Red Fox Ln · Jefferson, TX 75670

$129,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1998 3.06 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you’ve been searching for peaceful country living with room to grow, this secluded property may be the perfect fit. Nestled among mature trees on a long, rectangular 3-acre lot, the setting offers privacy, space, and a true connection to nature. The property already features a chicken coop, vegetable garden, and expansive outdoor space—ideal for anyone interested in a more self-sufficient lifestyle. While a little TLC and your personal vision, the possibilities are endless. Inside, you’ll find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and two separate living areas with an additional flexible space perfect for a home office, craft room or work out space. Picture mornings gathering fresh eggs, afternoons tending your garden, and evenings relaxing outdoors while enjoying the surrounding East Texas Piney Woods. Outdoor recreation is close at hand, with Lake O’ the Pines just 15 minutes away—perfect for boating and fishing. The property also includes a 2-car metal carport and ample space for additional parking, whether for boats, RVs, or other equipment. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from both Jefferson and Marshall, TX, you’ll enjoy the balance of quiet country living with easy access to town. Come explore the possibilities and experience the peaceful lifestyle this property has to offer.

Key facts

• 3.06 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Marshall ISD (town): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #658 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,110 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.10%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,191
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,786
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75670

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,036

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $191	+0% $154	+5% $118	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $106	+0% $154	+5% $203	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $187	base $154	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $129,500 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,500 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $129,500 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-05-12
   price $129,500 1335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1335 chars)

   If you’ve been searching for peaceful country living with room to grow, this secluded property may be the perfect fit. Nestled among mature trees on a long, rectangular 3-acre lot, the setting offers privacy, space, and a true connection to nature. The property already features a chicken coop, vegetable garden, and expansive outdoor space—ideal for anyone interested in a more self-sufficient lifestyle. While a little TLC and your personal vision, the possibilities are endless. Inside, you’ll find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and two separate living areas with an additional flexible space perfect for a home office, craft room or work out space. Picture mornings gathering fresh eggs, afternoons tending your garden, and evenings relaxing outdoors while enjoying the surrounding East Texas Piney Woods. Outdoor recreation is close at hand, with Lake O’ the Pines just 15 minutes away—perfect for boating and fishing. The property also includes a 2-car metal carport and ample space for additional parking, whether for boats, RVs, or other equipment. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from both Jefferson and Marshall, TX, you’ll enjoy the balance of quiet country living with easy access to town. Come explore the possibilities and experience the peaceful lifestyle this property has to offer.

5. 2026-04-17
   listed $135,000 Active 1335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1335 chars)

   If you’ve been searching for peaceful country living with room to grow, this secluded property may be the perfect fit. Nestled among mature trees on a long, rectangular 3-acre lot, the setting offers privacy, space, and a true connection to nature. The property already features a chicken coop, vegetable garden, and expansive outdoor space—ideal for anyone interested in a more self-sufficient lifestyle. While a little TLC and your personal vision, the possibilities are endless. Inside, you’ll find 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and two separate living areas with an additional flexible space perfect for a home office, craft room or work out space. Picture mornings gathering fresh eggs, afternoons tending your garden, and evenings relaxing outdoors while enjoying the surrounding East Texas Piney Woods. Outdoor recreation is close at hand, with Lake O’ the Pines just 15 minutes away—perfect for boating and fishing. The property also includes a 2-car metal carport and ample space for additional parking, whether for boats, RVs, or other equipment. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from both Jefferson and Marshall, TX, you’ll enjoy the balance of quiet country living with easy access to town. Come explore the possibilities and experience the peaceful lifestyle this property has to offer.

6. 2000-12-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,370 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,346/yr (+$112/mo · 131.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable loss: −$283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$68
• After-tax cash flow: $1,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829160
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,095
• Composite: 24.43/100
• National rank: #7680
• State rank: #658 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #10765

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 18,670 people
• Metro: Longview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,670
• Household income: $42,386
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 598.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,691 people
• By 2030: 69,317 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 69,973 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 70,090 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 70,607 · +2.8%
• By 2100: 67,546 · -1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 24.4% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.33%
• Current HPI: 100.3741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Longview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $129,500 LAAR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $135,000 LAAR
• 2000-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,024 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.